Volume Profile for 9/10/09
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Thursday, September 10, 2009
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
How much technical damage did yesterday's drop do?
Live ChartThe McClellan Oscillator has crossed the zero line. Looking at the chart, we can see that this usually indicates an intermediate term pullback. Remember, the oscillator bunches up at the top and then makes its move down.
Live ChartNote that both the 5 and to day moving average for breadth (the A/D line) have continued to drop. Breadth is dropping more quickly than the general market, which means that leadership continues to narrow.
Now take a look at the huge breadth increases that led the moves up on March and July. I seriously underestimated the strength of this rally, and I should have been looking at the strength of the participation in the rally as an early hint.
Live ChartNote that the McClellan Summation index is just starting to turn down and hasn't crossed its PSAR yet. I'm waiting for this to confirm the intermediate trend down.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Monday Night Chart Dump
Let's start out tonight with the daily chart. Opinion among Elliotticians is, to say the least, divided, but this really looks like five waves up from the March low to me. Five waves up at this juncture can mean two different things.
Either way, this means that a pullback based on the entire move up since May is in order soon.
Link to live chart
Here's an hourly chart. It shows an expanding triangle. We're getting close to the top trendline.
Link to Live Chart
Sorry about this one -- I'm doing this on a laptop and I was using MS paint to save my screen grabs. Note the major turns that happen when we hit the trendline drawn on the RSI(14) -- I'm not sure that it's valid TA, but it's worked well for the last year.
Link to Live Chart
It's a little early to say how all of this is going to end, but I'm seeing us rising in three-wave patterns. The shape is indicative of a possible ending diagonal. I'm watching the 38.1% Fib of the entire move up at 1013 and a gap from 1001-1005 on the S&P cash that has partially filled. Regardless of what shape it takes, there will be considerable resistance from the major fib at 1013.
Link to Live Chart
Now a few sentiment-oriented charts. Whenever the public gets too bullish, it means that more and more people are fully invested. We're near levels (the red lines) where the market has traditionally turned in the past.
Link to Live Chart
Here's the ratio of a three-month VIX index to the regular one month index. It has telegraphed turns in the past and is now diverging down.
Link to Live Chart
Note that the last few days of up moves were reflected in the Advance-Decline (breadth) line, but the past week or so still shows the divergence.
Link to Live Chart
The 10 day TICK moving average is still diverging down after hitting a very high level.
Link to Live Chart
The McClellan Oscillator tends to bunch up before heading down. The signal is confirmed once it crosses the zero line.
Link to Live Chart
The next chart is the same McClellan Oscillator shown above, only with a 10 day moving average applied to it. I use this because the moving average creates a curve that tends to fit into a range (shown by the horizontal lines.)
Link to Live Chart
This is the percentage of stocks over the 50 day moving average, and it's looking toppy.
Link to Live Chart
The percentage of stocks over the 150 day MA looks similarly high.
Link to Live Chart
One last chart: The McSum. Pointing up (and it is) is bullish. Pointing down is bearish. This is a great chart to confirm an intermediate term trend once it happens. Note that this indicator tends to lag the market.
Link to live chart
- It's the A wave of an A-B-C zigzag correction that will pull back soon and then go considerably higher.
- It's the C wave of an A-B-C irregular flat, and we will head to new lows or a double bottom.
Either way, this means that a pullback based on the entire move up since May is in order soon.
Link to live chartHere's an hourly chart. It shows an expanding triangle. We're getting close to the top trendline.
Link to Live ChartSorry about this one -- I'm doing this on a laptop and I was using MS paint to save my screen grabs. Note the major turns that happen when we hit the trendline drawn on the RSI(14) -- I'm not sure that it's valid TA, but it's worked well for the last year.
Link to Live ChartIt's a little early to say how all of this is going to end, but I'm seeing us rising in three-wave patterns. The shape is indicative of a possible ending diagonal. I'm watching the 38.1% Fib of the entire move up at 1013 and a gap from 1001-1005 on the S&P cash that has partially filled. Regardless of what shape it takes, there will be considerable resistance from the major fib at 1013.
Link to Live ChartNow a few sentiment-oriented charts. Whenever the public gets too bullish, it means that more and more people are fully invested. We're near levels (the red lines) where the market has traditionally turned in the past.
Link to Live ChartHere's the ratio of a three-month VIX index to the regular one month index. It has telegraphed turns in the past and is now diverging down.
Link to Live ChartNote that the last few days of up moves were reflected in the Advance-Decline (breadth) line, but the past week or so still shows the divergence.
Link to Live ChartThe 10 day TICK moving average is still diverging down after hitting a very high level.
Link to Live ChartThe McClellan Oscillator tends to bunch up before heading down. The signal is confirmed once it crosses the zero line.
Link to Live ChartThe next chart is the same McClellan Oscillator shown above, only with a 10 day moving average applied to it. I use this because the moving average creates a curve that tends to fit into a range (shown by the horizontal lines.)
Link to Live ChartThis is the percentage of stocks over the 50 day moving average, and it's looking toppy.
Link to Live ChartThe percentage of stocks over the 150 day MA looks similarly high.
Link to Live ChartOne last chart: The McSum. Pointing up (and it is) is bullish. Pointing down is bearish. This is a great chart to confirm an intermediate term trend once it happens. Note that this indicator tends to lag the market.
Link to live chart
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
OK, so what's next?
It looks as though 5 waves up are nearly completed. Elliott-wise, there are two major possibilities that I'm seeing. First, this is Wave A of Primary II up. Without getting into a lot of detail, once this last push up is complete, this would mean that we would see a big retracement down that will not create new lows. Typically, this retracement would be 38% to 62% of the entire move up. This would provide an excellent launch point for the Inverse Head and Shoulders and drive us to 1160-1200 or so. A move to that point wouldn't surprise me; I just think it's more likely that we visit 800 first before launching up.
The other Elliott possibility is what's called an irregular (or running) flat. This would mean that the move up is almost complete. If this is the case, we go to new lows or a double bottom. Irregular flats are very rare, but the corresponding pattern on the Nasdaq would be an extended flat, which would be much more common.
I mainly wanted to use this chart to show how close we are to the 38.1% fib of the entire decline, the divergence in volume and how oversold the oscillators are. Also, we're forming what appears to be a broadening top pattern that is getting close to its top trendline. J0sh1ngU has really done an amazing post on this pattern at UI Dezine's blog. Check it out. Here's what Bulkowski's pattern site has to say about broadening tops. It isn't usually the most reliable pattern, but it fits with everything else, and I really think this is what's happening here.
Link to this chart on Stockcharts.com. I'm going to try linking to the actual chart, because these links will be up to date, while the photo above is static.
Link to chart
Now let's look at some internals. I love the McClellan Oscillator. Generally, it telegraphs moves before they occur by bunching up at the top of the chart before confirming the move by crossing the zero line and staying put.
Link to Chart
Here is a link to the McClellan Oscillator with a 10 day EMA, which tends to move between the green and red bands and respect the red bounds more reliably. I like to watch both charts, because the EMA chart doesn't show the bunching that I watch before a turn.
Note that the 10 day advance decline (breadth) moving average has turned down, forming a divergence against the main S&P chart.
Link to Chart
Over 90% of stocks are over their 150 day moving average. This is toppy and has presaged a turn in the past.
Link to Chart
The percentage of stocks over the 50 day MA is very toppy and is starting to diverge.
I saved the most important chart for last. This is the McClellan summation index, and it's the chart that I'm still waiting on to confirm the move. The summation index lags the top, but not by much, and it's a very reliable indicator. I don't want to read too much into divergences here, but note that the oscillator hasn't confirmed the new highs. Once it turns down and crosses the PSAR indicator (shown with a dotted line), I'll be bearish until I'm not.
Link to Chart
The other Elliott possibility is what's called an irregular (or running) flat. This would mean that the move up is almost complete. If this is the case, we go to new lows or a double bottom. Irregular flats are very rare, but the corresponding pattern on the Nasdaq would be an extended flat, which would be much more common.
I mainly wanted to use this chart to show how close we are to the 38.1% fib of the entire decline, the divergence in volume and how oversold the oscillators are. Also, we're forming what appears to be a broadening top pattern that is getting close to its top trendline. J0sh1ngU has really done an amazing post on this pattern at UI Dezine's blog. Check it out. Here's what Bulkowski's pattern site has to say about broadening tops. It isn't usually the most reliable pattern, but it fits with everything else, and I really think this is what's happening here.
Link to this chart on Stockcharts.com. I'm going to try linking to the actual chart, because these links will be up to date, while the photo above is static.
Link to chartNow let's look at some internals. I love the McClellan Oscillator. Generally, it telegraphs moves before they occur by bunching up at the top of the chart before confirming the move by crossing the zero line and staying put.
Link to ChartHere is a link to the McClellan Oscillator with a 10 day EMA, which tends to move between the green and red bands and respect the red bounds more reliably. I like to watch both charts, because the EMA chart doesn't show the bunching that I watch before a turn.
Note that the 10 day advance decline (breadth) moving average has turned down, forming a divergence against the main S&P chart.
Link to ChartOver 90% of stocks are over their 150 day moving average. This is toppy and has presaged a turn in the past.
Link to ChartThe percentage of stocks over the 50 day MA is very toppy and is starting to diverge.
I saved the most important chart for last. This is the McClellan summation index, and it's the chart that I'm still waiting on to confirm the move. The summation index lags the top, but not by much, and it's a very reliable indicator. I don't want to read too much into divergences here, but note that the oscillator hasn't confirmed the new highs. Once it turns down and crosses the PSAR indicator (shown with a dotted line), I'll be bearish until I'm not.
Link to Chart
Friday, April 17, 2009
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Sears Holdings looks like a good short soon
A quick look at SHLD. Here's the 5 year view. Most Elliotticians feel the the market has gone through 5 waves down and is retracing into primary wave 2 right now (I personally think that the broader markets are in wave 5 right now, and it's retracing into an ending diagonal.) Note that the downward structure is clearly impulsive and that we don't have a 5th wave down yet.
Here's just the Wave 3 portion.
And here is a closeup on what has been a massive short squeeze. This correction looks like a 3-3-5 regular flat to me. Notice that the 5 waves up are almost complete. I've marked the target if wave C = Wave A, which is very common. I will be starting the short there and adding to it if it makes it to the 38% Fib.
Here's just the Wave 3 portion.
And here is a closeup on what has been a massive short squeeze. This correction looks like a 3-3-5 regular flat to me. Notice that the 5 waves up are almost complete. I've marked the target if wave C = Wave A, which is very common. I will be starting the short there and adding to it if it makes it to the 38% Fib.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Links
Previous Posts
- Volume Profile for 9/10/09
- How much technical damage did yesterday's drop do?...
- Monday Night Chart Dump
- OK, so what's next?
- Could this be a running triangle?
- Sears Holdings looks like a good short soon
- Inverse H&S forming on S&P futures 1 minute chart
- Futures as of 3/1/09, 6:30 pm Eastern
- Possible Wave 4 Barrier Triangle forming
- Apollo Group - update.
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