Wednesday, August 12, 2009

How much technical damage did yesterday's drop do?

Live Chart
The McClellan Oscillator has crossed the zero line. Looking at the chart, we can see that this usually indicates an intermediate term pullback. Remember, the oscillator bunches up at the top and then makes its move down.

Live Chart
Note that both the 5 and to day moving average for breadth (the A/D line) have continued to drop. Breadth is dropping more quickly than the general market, which means that leadership continues to narrow.

Now take a look at the huge breadth increases that led the moves up on March and July. I seriously underestimated the strength of this rally, and I should have been looking at the strength of the participation in the rally as an early hint.

Live Chart
Note that the McClellan Summation index is just starting to turn down and hasn't crossed its PSAR yet. I'm waiting for this to confirm the intermediate trend down.
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